A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
